Arizona vs Los Angeles D
Markets
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona Diamondbacks Winner | 99.0%Kalshi | $5.6M | No liquidity28.1% | — | — | — | — | ||
Tommy Edman: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $2.6K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Gabriel Moreno: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $1.0K | — | — | No liquidity41.0% | — | — | — | — |
Ildemaro Vargas: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $296 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nolan Arenado: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $1.4K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Tim Tawa: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $594 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ildemaro Vargas: 3+ | 8.0%Kalshi | $421 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nolan Arenado: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $5.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tommy Edman: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $15.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Gabriel Moreno: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tim Tawa: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $5.1K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Ildemaro Vargas: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Max Muncy (LAD): 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $850 | — | — | No liquidity96.0% | — | — | — | — |
Geraldo Perdomo: 2+ | 32.0%Kalshi | $437 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Andy Pages: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $9.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Kyle Tucker: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Teoscar Hernández: 2+ | 31.0%Kalshi | $769 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Andy Pages: 3+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $2.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tommy Edman: 4+ | 22.0%Kalshi | $132 | — | — | No liquidity51.0% | — | — | — | — |
Teoscar Hernández: 4+ | 20.0%Kalshi | $131 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Andy Pages: 5+ | 16.0%Kalshi | $198 | — | — | No liquidity93.0% | — | — | — | — |
Teoscar Hernández: 5+ | 13.0%Kalshi | $396 | — | — | No liquidity13.0% | — | — | — | — |
Nolan Arenado: 5+ | 12.0%Kalshi | $204 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ryan Waldschmidt: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $169 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Kyle Tucker: 3+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $1.6K | — | — | No liquidity11.0% | — | — | — | — |
Andy Pages: 4+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $430 | — | — | No liquidity93.0% | — | — | — | — |
Max Muncy (LAD): 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $6.8K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.5%Polymarket | $5.3M | No liquidity74.6% | — | — | — | — | ||
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $288 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Eliézer Alfonzo: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $8.9K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Kyle Tucker: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $19.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Andy Pages: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $16.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Geraldo Perdomo: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.2K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.0K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Ryan Waldschmidt: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Teoscar Hernández: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $10.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Dodgers wins by over 4.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $6.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Dodgers wins by over 5.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $5.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This market covers the MLB regular-season game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers, originally scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 4:10 PM ET. Kalshi and Polymarket resolve straightforwardly to whichever team wins, with provisions for postponement, while Azuro also lists a Draw outcome. Total volume across platforms sits near $11,300, concentrated on Kalshi ($7,985) and Polymarket ($3,272). The Los Angeles Dodgers are the clear favourite, with a consensus implied probability of 66.0%. Kalshi prices Los Angeles at 66.0% and Polymarket at 65.5%, while Azuro sits noticeably higher at 70.4% — though Azuro's version also carves out 10.9% for a draw, which explains part of that gap. Arizona is priced at 35.0% on Kalshi, 34.5% on Polymarket, and 31.7% on Azuro, giving a consensus of 35.0%. Polymarket additionally shows a related Yes/No line at 49.5%/50.5%. Between the two-way books, cross-platform spreads on Los Angeles and Arizona are tight at just 0.5 points, so Kalshi and Polymarket are effectively in agreement that the Dodgers are meaningful favourites, with Azuro's three-way pricing the main structural divergence.
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