Arkansas Senate winner? — In 2026

The 2026 Arkansas U.S. Senate race is listed on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with each platform framing the market slightly differently. Kalshi lists individual candidates, including the Republican incumbent Tom Cotton and Democrat Hallie Shoffner, while Polymarket resolves by party — Republican versus Democratic nominee — based on race calls from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if those disagree). The two markets tell a consistent story. Kalshi prices Tom Cotton at 95.5%, with Hallie Shoffner as his only meaningful counterparty at 6.2%. Polymarket's party-level market has the Republican nominee at 93.4% against the Democratic nominee at 4.6%. Aggregated across platforms, Cotton sits at a consensus 95.2%, making him a heavy favourite by roughly 89 points over the leading Democratic-side outcome. The candidate-level and party-level numbers align closely, though Kalshi's Cotton line trades about two points above Polymarket's generic Republican line — a small gap that likely reflects the residual chance of a different Republican nominee rather than any disagreement about the party's prospects. Overall, both platforms converge on a decisive Republican hold, with no material cross-platform pricing dislocation.