Austin vs Puebla

Austin FC hosts Club Puebla in a Leagues Cup group-stage fixture originally scheduled for August 9, 2026, with the market listed as live across Polymarket, Kalshi, Azuro, and Limitless. The core question is the 90-minute result (regulation plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties), alongside a wide range of side markets covering totals, spreads, halftime outcomes, exact score, corners, and team-specific goal lines. Austin FC is the clear favourite in the moneyline market at a consensus 99.7% implied probability, priced 99.5% on Polymarket, 99.0% on Kalshi, and 98.0% on Azuro. The corresponding Draw sits at roughly 5.2% consensus (Azuro 5.2%, Kalshi 1.0%, Polymarket 0.7%) and Club Puebla at about 1.0% consensus (Kalshi 1.0%, Polymarket 0.7%). A price this lopsided typically indicates the match is either already effectively decided in-play or heavily skewed by prior scoreline, given the "live" status. Cross-platform spreads are mostly negligible, but the tails show the widest gaps: the Draw carries a 4.38-point spread between Azuro (5.2%) and Kalshi (1.0%), and one derivative "No" line differs by 9.19 points between Polymarket (66.0%) and Azuro (75.2%). Overall, the four venues agree that Austin FC is an overwhelming favourite, with meaningful disagreement confined to low-probability outcomes.