Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

This market asks whether the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — the chokepoint between Yemen and the Horn of Africa linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden — will be "effectively closed" by various deadlines through the end of 2026. Per the Polymarket resolution criteria, closure is defined by IMF PortWatch data showing a 7-day moving average of ship arrivals at or below 10 on any date up to the listed deadline. The market is structured as a series of tiered dates, each with its own Yes/No pair, alongside a Limitless companion market pricing the specific month closure might occur. Across every tier, "No" is the heavy favourite on Polymarket. Near-term deadlines carry the strongest conviction — one "No" leg trades at 99.9%, with others at 96.9%, 87.5% and 81.0% as horizons extend. The corresponding "Yes" probabilities climb from effectively 0.3% up to 20.0% for the longest-dated tier, reflecting more room for disruption over time. On Limitless, the month-selection market gives December 31 the highest weight at 19.4%, followed by October 31 at 12.5% and September 30 at 3.6%. Cross-platform pricing is tightly aligned, with no material spreads flagged between Polymarket and Limitless: both venues point to continued open transit as the base case, with tail risk concentrated in later-2026 dates.