Best AI at the end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gemini Favorite | 42.1%Kalshi | $2.5M | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Claude | 42.0%Gemini | $2.9M | — | — | — | — | — | ||
ChatGPT Widest spread 3.0% | 7.0%Gemini | $2.7M | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Grok | 3.3%Kalshi | $1.9M | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Muse Spark | 2.0%Kalshi | $1.5M | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
LLaMA | 2.0%Gemini | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Qwen | 0.9%Kalshi | $1.0M | — | — | — | — | — | ||
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This market asks which AI model will rank as the best on the LMArena leaderboard when 2026 closes on December 31. Resolution on Kalshi relies on Rank (UB), with the Arena Score, vote count, and release date acting as tiebreakers, and the source is checked with the "Remove Style Control" toggle applied. Each outcome corresponds to a distinct model family — Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, LLaMA, Muse Spark, Qwen, Ernie, or Kimi — sitting at the top of the leaderboard on that date. Claude is the clear favourite at a consensus 67.6%, priced at 67.9% on Kalshi and 67.0% on Gemini. The next tier is a near tie between ChatGPT (10.5%) and Grok (10.5%), followed by the Gemini model at 8.5%. LLaMA (2.5%), Muse Spark (2.1%), Qwen (1.5%), Ernie (1.0%) and Kimi (1.0%) trail well behind. That gap of roughly 57 points between Claude and the rest points to strong conviction in a single frontrunner rather than a contested race. Cross-platform spreads are mostly narrow, but Ernie shows a 0.85-point gap (1.0% on Gemini versus 0.3% on Kalshi), and Claude, Gemini and Qwen show smaller but visible differences. Overall, Kalshi and Gemini agree that Claude dominates, with only minor tail-outcome disagreements.
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