Boston vs New York M
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox Winner | 99.0%Kalshi | $2.9M | — | — | — | — | No liquidity99.9% | — | |
Sonny Gray: 3+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $530 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wilyer Abreu: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $310 | — | — | No liquidity9.0% | — | — | — | — |
A.J. Ewing: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.2K | — | — | No liquidity9.0% | — | — | — | — |
Masataka Yoshida: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $745 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jared Young: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $240 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Anthony Seigler: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $262 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Brett Baty: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $374 | — | — | No liquidity9.0% | — | — | — | — |
Tsung-Che Cheng: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $655 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wilyer Abreu: 3+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.2K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Brett Baty: 3+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $353 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tsung-Che Cheng: 3+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $122 | — | — | No liquidity19.0% | — | — | — | — |
A.J. Ewing: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wilyer Abreu: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $5.8K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Carson Benge: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.3K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Masataka Yoshida: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $373 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Anthony Seigler: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $927 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jared Young: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $824 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Brett Baty: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $2.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tsung-Che Cheng: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $1.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jarren Duran: 2+ | 63.0%Kalshi | $212 | — | — | No liquidity38.0% | — | — | — | — |
Ceddanne Rafaela: 2+ | 37.0%Kalshi | $120 | — | — | No liquidity9.0% | — | — | — | — |
Sonny Gray: 8+ | 22.0%Kalshi | $865 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Romy Gonzalez: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $372 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Caleb Durbin: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $8.0K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Connor Wong: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $321 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Zack Short: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $188 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
New York Mets Eliminated | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.9M | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$586.6K | — | |
Sonny Gray: 4+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $274 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sonny Gray: 5+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $966 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sonny Gray: 6+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $12.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sonny Gray: 7+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sonny Gray: 9+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sonny Gray: 10+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ceddanne Rafaela: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $6.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jarren Duran: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $8.4K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Francisco Alvarez: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $340 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jorge Polanco: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $545 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Red Sox wins by over 4.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $31.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
The Boston Red Sox host the New York Mets on July 10, 2026, with the moneyline market showing meaningful disagreement between platforms. Polymarket prices Boston at 58.0% to win outright, while Kalshi's headline moneyline sits at just 44.0% — a 14-point cross-platform spread that stands out against otherwise tightly aligned odds. Kalshi's own separate market lists Boston higher at 69.0%, suggesting the discrepancy may reflect different snapshot moments rather than a persistent gap. On the Mets side, Kalshi implies 56.0% versus Polymarket's 34.0%, again indicating the two order books are reading the matchup differently. Around the moneyline, ancillary markets paint a high-scoring, Mets-leaning picture in-game. Kalshi has over 2.5 total runs at 96.0%, over 4.5 at 82.0%, and over 6.5 at 63.0%, with Polymarket's run-line "Over" priced near 79.5%. The Mets are favored to lead through the first three innings at 78.0% and the first seven at 75.0%, while Boston's first-five win probability sits at 36.0%. Starter markets tilt toward strong outings: Nolan McLean is 89.0% to reach 5+ strikeouts and 78.0% for 18+ outs, with Sonny Gray at 75.0% for 5+ strikeouts.Boston opens a three-game series at Citi Field on Friday, July 10 at 7:15 p.m. ET, with Sonny Gray starting for the Red Sox against the Mets' Nolan McLean. Polymarket's moneyline market prices Boston at 58.0% to win, while one Kalshi book has the Red Sox at just 44.0% — a 14-point cross-platform spread that stands out against otherwise tightly aligned odds. A separate Kalshi listing has Boston higher at 69.0%, hinting the gap reflects stale prints as much as genuine disagreement. The Mets are correspondingly 34.0% on Polymarket versus 56.0% on Kalshi. The market's lean toward Boston makes sense given form: the Red Sox have swept three of their last four opponents, going an MLB-best 11-2 in that span to pull within 2½ games of the Mariners for the final wild-card spot, with their pitchers posting a 1.67 ERA over a six-game winning streak. Gray also brings a track record against this opponent — he is 4-1 with a 3.48 ERA in six starts against the Mets — while McLean is facing the Red Sox for the first time. Sportsbook pricing tells a different story, however: the Red Sox are +105 to the Mets' -130, closer to Kalshi's read than Polymarket's. Ancillary Kalshi markets frame a run-friendly night: over 2.5 total runs at 96.0%, over 4.5 at 82.0%, McLean 89.0% for 5+ strikeouts, and the Mets 78.0% to lead through three innings. The takeaway: platforms broadly agree on a high-scoring game, but disagree sharply on who wins it.
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