Boston vs Toronto

This market covers the NBA Summer League matchup between the Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors, played on July 10, 2026 in Las Vegas. Kalshi listed both a moneyline market (did Toronto win?) and a spread market (did Toronto win by more than 12.5?), while Polymarket offered a standard winner market and Azuro provided a wide range of prop and spread lines. The event is now closed, with all markets fully resolved. Chris Cenac Jr. hit a 3-pointer as time expired in regulation to force overtime, and Boston defeated Toronto 83-80 in the NBA Summer League opener at the Pavilion in Las Vegas. Amari Williams finished with 23 points and 13 rebounds to lead the Celtics. The result explains why every Boston-wins outcome has resolved to near-certainty: Kalshi's moneyline and spread markets both sit at 99.0% for Boston, and Polymarket's winner market has settled at 100.0% for the Celtics. The one notable cross-platform discrepancy is Azuro, where the Toronto Raptors moneyline still showed 39.4% implied probability at snapshot time — a stark contrast to Polymarket's 0.1% — suggesting Azuro's prices had not yet fully adjusted to the final result. Toronto held a three-point lead in the final seconds before Cenac Jr.'s clutch corner three forced overtime, which likely kept pre-resolution prices compressed on the Toronto side. With $1.6M in total volume, Kalshi dominated liquidity at over $713K, while Polymarket and Azuro remained far smaller participants. The cross-platform takeaway is clear: Kalshi and Polymarket had fully priced in the Boston win, while Azuro's lagging update created a temporary but significant pricing gap that smart observers would have flagged immediately.