Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

This market asks which candidate will finish second in the first round of Brazil's presidential election, scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a named contender, and the market resolves to whichever candidate ends up with the second-highest valid vote total, per official results from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court. Polymarket dominates activity here with roughly $5.2 million in volume, while Kalshi carries a much thinner $37,600. Flávio Bolsonaro is the clear favourite for the runner-up slot, priced at 85.5% on Polymarket and 86.0% on Kalshi — a consensus of 85.5% and a near-negligible 0.5-point spread across venues. That pricing implies traders view the second-place finish as effectively locked in, with all remaining candidates splitting the residual probability. Behind him, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sits at a consensus 5.5%, followed by Renan Santos at 4.2%. Every other listed candidate trades at or below 0.5% on Polymarket. Cross-platform divergence is most visible on Lula, quoted at 12.0% on Kalshi versus just 5.3% on Polymarket — a 3.05-point gap — with a similar pattern on Romeu Zema (4.0% vs 0.1%). Overall, both venues agree on the favourite, but Kalshi's thinner book leaves several longshots priced materially higher than on Polymarket.