Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

This market asks who will finish second in the first round of Brazil's presidential election, scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific candidate placing runner-up in the popular vote, with resolution tied to the official tally from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court. The event is listed across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Polymarket US, with roughly $7.86M in aggregate volume, the vast majority sitting on Polymarket. Flávio Bolsonaro is the clear favourite at a 71.0% consensus, priced at 72.0% on Polymarket and 69.0% on Kalshi, signalling strong cross-venue agreement that he is the most likely second-place finisher. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sits a distant second at a 28.7% consensus, with Polymarket at 29.1% and Kalshi at 30.0%. No other named candidate registers above roughly 0.5%, indicating traders view the runner-up slot as effectively a two-name race. The notable dislocation is on Polymarket US, where Flávio Bolsonaro trades at just 57.0% — a 14.5-point gap versus Polymarket's 72.0% — while Lula is quoted at 98.0%, figures that appear inconsistent with the deeper Polymarket and Kalshi books. Across the main venues, pricing on Flávio Bolsonaro as runner-up is tightly aligned; the Polymarket US quotes stand out as the sole meaningful outlier.