Brazil presidential runoff: Lula margin of victory — On Oct 25, 2026
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lula da Silva, ≥1% Favorite | 11.0%Kalshi | $5.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Lula da Silva, ≥3% | 5.0%Kalshi | $1.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Lula da Silva, ≥5% | 3.0%Kalshi | $1.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Lula da Silva, ≥7% | 3.0%Kalshi | $28.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Lula da Silva, ≥9% | 2.0%Kalshi | $860 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
The margin of victory is the share of valid votes (excluding blank and null votes) received by Lula da Silva minus the share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses. If Lula da Silva wins, the margin will be positive; if Lula da Silva loses, the margin will be negative; if Lula da Silva ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Lula da Silva runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
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