California Governor winner? (Person) — In 2026

This market asks who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election, with each outcome tied to a specific candidate. It is listed on Kalshi, Gemini, and Polymarket US, with Kalshi carrying the bulk of activity at roughly $12.3 million in volume and about $5.2 million in liquidity, versus around $103,000 on Gemini and no recorded volume on Polymarket US at snapshot time. Xavier Becerra is the clear favourite, priced at a 96.6% consensus across the three venues. Kalshi has him highest at 97.1%, Gemini at 97.0%, and Polymarket US at 95.0%, a cross-platform spread of about 2.1 points. Steve Hilton is the distant second at a 5.5% consensus, ranging from 4.0% on Kalshi and Gemini to 6.0% on Polymarket US. Other named candidates — including Katie Porter, Eric Swalwell, Tom Steyer, Chad Bianco, Butch Ware, Ché Ahn, and Matt Mahan — currently show 0.0% on Gemini and are not priced elsewhere in the snapshot. The gap between Becerra and the rest of the field is unusually wide for a race this far from resolution, and the pricing is broadly consistent across platforms, with only marginal disagreement at the top of the ticket.