Chicago C vs Cincinnati
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Reds Winner | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.5M | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Hunter Greene: 11+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $4.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Hunter Greene: 4+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $2.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Hunter Greene: 5+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Hunter Greene: 6+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $3.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Hunter Greene: 7+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $16.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Hunter Greene: 8+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $9.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Hunter Greene: 9+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $4.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Hunter Greene: 10+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $5.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
JJ Bleday: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $8.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Edwin Arroyo: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $553 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sal Stewart: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Seiya Suzuki: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $3.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Spencer Steer: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $789 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Edwin Arroyo: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $260 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Tyler Stephenson: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $264 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Ian Happ: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.6K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Seiya Suzuki: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $8.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Seiya Suzuki: 3+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $469 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Spencer Steer: 3+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $2.1K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Dansby Swanson: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $1.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Spencer Steer: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.2K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Tyler Stephenson: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $1.3K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Michael Busch: 3+ | 34.0%Kalshi | $153 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Ian Happ: 2+ | 32.0%Kalshi | $556 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ian Happ: 3+ | 4.0%Kalshi | $316 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Dansby Swanson: 3+ | 24.0%Kalshi | $1.4K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Sal Stewart: 4+ | 15.0%Kalshi | $149 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Noelvi Marte: 5+ | 8.0%Kalshi | $256 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Ian Happ: 6+ | 7.0%Kalshi | $134 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ke'Bryan Hayes: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $182 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Carson Kelly: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $322 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nico Hoerner: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $1.6K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Michael Conforto: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $313 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Noelvi Marte: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Eugenio Suárez: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $3.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Chicago Cubs | 0.4%Polymarket | $2.2M | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Michael Busch: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $514 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Sal Stewart: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $12.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Reds wins by over 5.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $671 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Reds wins by over 4.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This is the opening game of a three-game series at Great American Ball Park on July 10, 2026. The Cubs are heavy favorites in the standings (52-41) vs Reds (42-50), yet the markets have this as a near-coin-flip. Let me write the description. The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds opened a three-game weekend series at Great American Ball Park on July 10, with the winner-take-all moneyline market resolving to whichever club wins the game outright. Two NL Central squads — the Chicago Cubs (52-41) and the Cincinnati Reds (42-50) — met on Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park. Pricing is essentially a coin flip with a slight Chicago lean. Polymarket has the Cubs at 53.0% and the Reds at 48.0%, while Kalshi flips the read the other way at 48.0% Cubs and 52.0% Reds — a 5-point cross-platform spread on the favourite that reflects genuine disagreement rather than mispricing. The consensus favourite is Chicago at 53.0%, but the market clearly views this as close to a pick'em despite the Cubs' 10-game edge in the standings. Totals lean under (Polymarket "Under" 76.0%), and Kalshi prices over 3.5 runs at 91.0% and over 6.5 at 54.0%. The tight line makes sense given the pitching matchup and recent form. Cincinnati sends Hunter Greene to the mound for his second start of the season; the right-hander last pitched against Baltimore, throwing 3 1/3 innings and giving up eight earned runs, leaving him with a 21.60 ERA in one game. The Cubs counter with Shota Imanaga (5-7, 4.28 ERA, 100 strikeouts in 103 2/3 innings). Third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes was activated off the injured list by the Reds before the game. Across platforms, the takeaway is a genuine toss-up with Polymarket and Kalshi disagreeing on which side gets the marginal edge.
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