Chicago C vs San Diego

This snapshot covers the MLB regular-season matchup between the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres, originally scheduled for September 29. It's one of the most widely listed single games across prediction markets, appearing on Polymarket, Kalshi, Novig, Gemini, and Azuro, with a sprawling set of derivative markets covering the moneyline, run line, totals, team totals, and dozens of player props. Aggregate volume across all listings sits near $1.1 million, with Novig's moneyline market and Kalshi's home-runs and game-winner markets carrying most of the flow. On the headline moneyline, San Diego is the narrow favourite at a 54.6% consensus, versus 44.9% for Chicago — essentially a coin flip leaning Padres. Pricing is tight across venues: Novig, Gemini, Kalshi, and Polymarket all have the Padres between 55.0% and 55.5%, while Azuro sits slightly higher at 56.8%. The Cubs range from 44.5% on Polymarket to 49.0% on Azuro, a roughly 1-point spread. Run-line and total-runs markets also cluster closely, with an Under on the game total priced around 51–52% across Polymarket, Gemini, and Novig. The larger cross-platform gaps mostly appear in thinly-traded Gemini derivative markets, where several Over/Under lines diverge by 25–38 points from Novig and Polymarket; the core moneyline itself is priced consistently, framing a near-even game with San Diego a slight favourite.