Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds
Markets
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago Cubs Winner | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.7M | No liquidity49.0% | — | — | — | — | ||
Alex Bregman: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $3.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Seiya Suzuki: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $954 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Dansby Swanson: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Michael Busch: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $347 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Spencer Steer: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.0K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Michael Busch: 3+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $313 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Seiya Suzuki: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $5.5K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Noelvi Marte: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $1.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Spencer Steer: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.2K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Edwin Arroyo: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $558 | — | — | No liquidity69.0% | — | — | — | — |
JJ Bleday: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $851 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Eugenio Suárez: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.7K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Ke'Bryan Hayes: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Kevin Alcantara: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.2K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Kevin Alcantara: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ian Happ: 2+ | 46.0%Kalshi | $655 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Noelvi Marte: 2+ | 35.0%Kalshi | $1.7K | — | — | No liquidity2.0% | — | — | — | — |
Tyler Stephenson: 2+ | 38.0%Kalshi | $827 | — | — | No liquidity49.0% | — | — | — | — |
Dansby Swanson: 3+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nico Hoerner: 2+ | 34.0%Kalshi | $420 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Ian Happ: 3+ | 32.0%Kalshi | $196 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Seiya Suzuki: 4+ | 28.0%Kalshi | $333 | — | — | No liquidity98.0% | — | — | — | — |
Sal Stewart: 4+ | 23.0%Kalshi | $113 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Dansby Swanson: 5+ | 12.0%Kalshi | $1.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Eugenio Suárez: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $567 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Nico Hoerner: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
JJ Bleday: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $204 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Ke'Bryan Hayes: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $2.1K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Nico Hoerner: 3+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $377 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Dansby Swanson: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $6.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ian Happ: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $5.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tyler Stephenson: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $1.5K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Cincinnati Reds Widest spread 0.9% | 0.1%Polymarket | $954.2K | No liquidity52.4% | — | — | — | — | ||
Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $12.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Alex Bregman: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sal Stewart: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.1K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Michael Busch: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.4K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Carson Kelly: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.0K | — | — | No liquidity69.0% | — | — | — | — |
Cubs wins by over 4.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $7.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Reds wins by over 4.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $538 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Over 15.5 runs scored | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Over 14.5 runs scored | 1.0%Kalshi | $14.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Cubs wins by over 5.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This market covers the MLB regular-season game between the Chicago Cubs and the Cincinnati Reds, originally scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 1:40 PM ET. Each platform resolves based on which team wins the game, with slight variations in how postponements or cancellations are handled. Azuro also carries a draw outcome, priced at 12.3%, which reflects its three-way sports format rather than a realistic MLB result. The Chicago Cubs are the consensus favourite at 54.0%, though the edge over Cincinnati is narrow. Kalshi prices the Cubs highest at 54.0%, Polymarket sits at 51.5%, and Azuro's implied number is 49.5%, giving a 2.5-point cross-platform spread. On the other side, the Reds range from 46.0% on Kalshi up to 51.8% on Azuro, with Polymarket in between at 48.5%. Polymarket also lists a binary "Yes/No" version of the Cubs line at 58.5%/41.5%. Liquidity is concentrated on Polymarket ($28,120), while Kalshi carries most of the traded volume so far. The takeaway: the Cubs are a slim favourite across the board, but pricing is close enough that Kalshi and Azuro disagree on the winner by a couple of points.
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