Chicago WS vs Cleveland

This listing covers the Chicago White Sox against the Cleveland Guardians, an MLB game scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. Kalshi labels it Game 1. There are two outcomes: a Guardians win or a White Sox win. Polymarket's rules say a cancelled game with no make-up, or a tie, resolves 50-50. Kalshi's rules say a game cancelled or rescheduled more than two days out resolves to a fair price. Total volume across listings is about $2.8 million, with Kalshi ($1.07 million) and Novig ($773,278) carrying most of it. Cleveland is the favourite at a 57.5% consensus. Venue midpoints are Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 57.5%, Novig 57.3% and Gemini 58.5%. Chicago sits at 42.5%, with Novig at 42.8% and the other three venues at 42.5%. That 15-point gap points to a modest but clear edge for the Guardians, not a lopsided matchup. The spread across platforms is narrow. Gemini is the outlier on Cleveland, about 1.25 points above the others, but its listing shows $2,640 in volume and no liquidity. The White Sox spread is just 0.25 points. Azuro was left out of the consensus because it has no liquidity. Overall, the venues with real liquidity price this game almost identically, so cross-platform disagreement is minimal.