Chicago WS vs Houston

This event covers the September 29 MLB regular-season game between the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros, listed across Polymarket, Kalshi, Novig, Gemini, Azuro and Polymarket US. Alongside the straight moneyline, the platforms carry a deep bench of derivative markets: first-inning, first-3-innings, first-5-innings and per-inning winners, run totals, run line spreads (±1.5, ±2.5, ±3.5), team totals, and player props for hits, home runs, RBIs, total bases and stolen bases. Bulk of the notional volume sits on Novig's moneyline ($551k) and Kalshi's Game 1 market ($356k), with Polymarket adding roughly $102k on the same line. Houston is the narrow favourite on the moneyline at a 53.5% consensus, versus 46.5% for the White Sox — essentially a coin flip that leans Astros. Cross-platform pricing on the headline market is remarkably tight: Houston trades at 53.5% on Polymarket, 54.0% on Kalshi, Novig and Gemini, 54.0% on Polymarket US and 56.2% on Azuro, the only notable outlier. The wider spreads appear on Gemini's inning and total-run derivatives, where several Over/Under lines diverge 20–40 points from Novig and Polymarket US quotes, likely reflecting thin Gemini liquidity rather than genuine disagreement. On the core moneyline, the six venues effectively agree: a near-even game, tilted slightly to Houston.