Clacton by-election margin of victory? — On Jul 8, 2026
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Result | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reform UK, ≥5% | Lost | $12.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Reform UK, ≥10% | Lost | $18.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Reform UK, ≥20% | Lost | $12.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Reform UK, ≥25% | Lost | $8.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Reform UK, ≥30% | Lost | $18.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Reform UK, ≥35% | Lost | $7.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Reform UK, ≥15% | Lost | $14.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Farage 30%+ Winner | Won | $32.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Reform UK, ≥75% | Lost | $841 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Reform UK, ≥45% | Lost | $10.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Farage 20-30% | Lost | $611 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Reform UK, ≥80% | Lost | $3.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Reform UK, ≥50% | Lost | $6.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Reform UK, ≥60% | Lost | $19.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Farage <10% | Lost | $414 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Count Binface | Lost | $4.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Reform UK, ≥40% | Lost | $15.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Reform UK, ≥55% | Lost | $12.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Reform UK, ≥70% | Lost | $7.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Reform UK, ≥65% | Lost | $5.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
The margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Reform UK if Reform UK wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Reform UK loses. If Reform UK wins, the margin will be positive; if Reform UK loses, the margin will be negative; if Reform UK ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Reform UK runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
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