Cleveland vs Chicago WS

This market covers the MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and the Chicago White Sox, listed on Kalshi as Game 3 and scheduled for October 7, 2026 (4:00 PM EDT per Kalshi). The two outcomes are a Guardians win or a White Sox win. Rules differ slightly by venue: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game is cancelled or pushed back more than two days, while Polymarket resolves 50-50 if the game is cancelled without a make-up or ends in a tie. Polymarket's listing gives a different start time (3:33 AM ET) from Kalshi's. The White Sox are a slight favourite at a 51.9% consensus, with the Guardians at 48.1%. Venue midpoints for Chicago are 51.5% on Polymarket and Kalshi, 52.3% on Novig and 52.5% on Gemini. Cleveland sits at 48.5% on Polymarket and Kalshi, 47.8% on Novig and 47.5% on Gemini. A gap of under four points signals a market that sees the game as close to a coin flip. Kalshi leads activity with about $587,420 in volume, followed by Novig at $372,441. Azuro is excluded from the consensus because it has no liquidity. The cross-platform spread is just 1.0 point on each outcome, so Polymarket, Kalshi, Novig and Gemini are pricing this near-even matchup almost identically.