Cleveland vs Cincinnati
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland Guardians Winner | 99.0%Kalshi | $7.6M | — | — | — | — | No liquidity99.9% | — | |
Sal Stewart: 2+ | 10.0%Kalshi | $14.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Chase DeLauter: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tyler Stephenson: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $2.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nathaniel Lowe: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $15.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Brayan Rocchio: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Dane Myers: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $406 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Travis Bazzana: 2+ | 11.0%Kalshi | $1.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Edwin Arroyo: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sal Stewart: 3+ | 28.0%Kalshi | $5.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Kyle Manzardo: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Chase DeLauter: 3+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $267 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Petey Halpin: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nathaniel Lowe: 3+ | 4.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sal Stewart: 4+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $606 | — | — | No liquidity3.0% | — | — | — | — |
Tyler Stephenson: 3+ | 7.0%Kalshi | $454 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Chase DeLauter: 4+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $335 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Kyle Manzardo: 3+ | 25.0%Kalshi | $350 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Tyler Stephenson: 4+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $519 | — | — | No liquidity28.0% | — | — | — | — |
Sal Stewart: 5+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $201 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sal Stewart: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $25.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Edwin Arroyo: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $4.2K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Brayan Rocchio: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $3.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Dane Myers: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $3.8K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Kyle Manzardo: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $19.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Petey Halpin: 1+ | 6.0%Kalshi | $6.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Travis Bazzana: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $8.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Chase DeLauter: 1+ | 4.0%Kalshi | $17.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Edwin Arroyo: 3+ | 64.0%Kalshi | $409 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Kyle Manzardo: 5+ | 50.0%Kalshi | $320 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Edwin Arroyo: 4+ | 49.0%Kalshi | $282 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Tyler Stephenson: 5+ | 49.0%Kalshi | $463 | — | — | No liquidity9.0% | — | — | — | — |
Patrick Bailey: 2+ | 9.0%Kalshi | $2.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Eugenio Suárez: 3+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $703 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sal Stewart: 6+ | 33.0%Kalshi | $175 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
JJ Bleday: 4+ | 28.0%Kalshi | $442 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Travis Bazzana: 3+ | 27.0%Kalshi | $394 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
TJ Friedl: 2+ | 6.0%Kalshi | $742 | — | — | No liquidity37.0% | — | — | — | — |
Eugenio Suárez: 4+ | 25.0%Kalshi | $225 | — | — | No liquidity14.0% | — | — | — | — |
Petey Halpin: 3+ | 8.0%Kalshi | $333 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Brayan Rocchio: 4+ | 24.0%Kalshi | $192 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
JJ Bleday: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $4.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nathaniel Lowe: 4+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $402 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Edwin Arroyo: 5+ | 18.0%Kalshi | $210 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Eugenio Suárez: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $7.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Travis Bazzana: 4+ | 15.0%Kalshi | $152 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
TJ Friedl: 3+ | 15.0%Kalshi | $329 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Eugenio Suárez: 5+ | 14.0%Kalshi | $147 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Patrick Bailey: 4+ | 12.0%Kalshi | $600 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Patrick Bailey: 3+ | 11.0%Kalshi | $169 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
TJ Friedl: 4+ | 11.0%Kalshi | $100 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nathaniel Lowe: 5+ | 11.0%Kalshi | $164 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
JJ Bleday: 3+ | 10.0%Kalshi | $346 | — | — | No liquidity41.0% | — | — | — | — |
Chase DeLauter: 5+ | 8.0%Kalshi | $243 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Travis Bazzana: 5+ | 8.0%Kalshi | $206 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
TJ Friedl: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $13.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nathaniel Lowe: 1+ | 5.0%Kalshi | $33.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Patrick Bailey: 5+ | 4.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
JJ Bleday: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $15.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Patrick Bailey: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $25.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Cincinnati Reds Eliminated | 1.0%Kalshi | $9.6M | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$2.0M | — | |
Eugenio Suárez: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $24.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tyler Stephenson: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $12.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Over 13.5 runs scored | 1.0%Kalshi | $345.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Cleveland wins by over 4.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $47.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Cleveland wins by over 5.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Cleveland wins by over 6.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $11.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Over 14.5 runs scored | 1.0%Kalshi | $144.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This is the opening game of a three-game interleague series between the visiting Cleveland Guardians and the host Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park, scheduled for July 27 at 7:10 PM ET. On Polymarket and Kalshi, the moneyline market crowns Cincinnati the favourite — Kalshi prices the Reds at 60.0% and Polymarket sits one point lower at 59.0%, the only notable cross-platform spread in the event. Cleveland's win probability lands at 41.0% on both platforms, giving the Reds roughly a 19-point edge. The pitching matchup is the primary driver. Chase Burns (12-1) takes the mound for the Reds in his 20th start of the season, a stark contrast to Cleveland's Slade Cecconi (4-7, 4.60 ERA). Kalshi's 87.0% implied probability that Burns records 4+ strikeouts and 53.0% that he logs 17+ outs reflect confidence in a long, effective outing. Context reinforces the Reds' edge: Cincinnati returns home after completing a 6-3 road trip, winning its third consecutive series, while Cleveland arrives at 54-53 having dropped five consecutive games and going 3-7 over their last ten. Cincinnati has hit 19 home runs over its past 10 games and recorded 29 extra-base hits while slugging .431 — a hot offence stepping into a hitter-friendly park. Run-total markets on Kalshi reflect a high-scoring expectation, with over 8.5 combined runs at 54.0% implied probability. Across all markets, pricing is tightly aligned with negligible cross-platform spread on virtually every line, signalling strong consensus between Polymarket and Kalshi that Cincinnati's superior starting pitching and recent momentum make them clear, if not overwhelming, favourites tonight.
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