Cleveland vs Cincinnati
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Reds Winner | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.9M | — | — | — | — | No liquidity99.9% | — | |
JJ Bleday: 1+ | 97.0%Kalshi | $13.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Travis Bazzana: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $466 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Gabriel Arias: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $175 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Dane Myers: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $171 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Austin Hedges: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $218 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
José Ramírez: 2+ | 64.0%Kalshi | $148 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Steven Kwan: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $2.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Steven Kwan: 2+ | 20.0%Kalshi | $1.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
José Ramírez: 4+ | 35.0%Kalshi | $144 | — | — | No liquidity39.0% | — | — | — | — |
Chase DeLauter: 4+ | 32.0%Kalshi | $182 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Travis Bazzana: 2+ | 29.0%Kalshi | $279 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Brayan Rocchio: 4+ | 25.0%Kalshi | $185 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ke'Bryan Hayes: 2+ | 20.0%Kalshi | $111 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Petey Halpin: 1+ | 13.0%Kalshi | $651 | — | — | No liquidity27.0% | — | — | — | — |
Noelvi Marte: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $699 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sal Stewart: 2+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $345 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Chase DeLauter: 2+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $1.0K | — | — | No liquidity50.0% | — | — | — | — |
Chase DeLauter: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $3.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Cleveland Guardians Eliminated | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.1M | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$3.6K | — | |
José Ramírez: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.8K | — | — | No liquidity50.0% | — | — | — | — |
JJ Bleday: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sal Stewart: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nathaniel Lowe: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ke'Bryan Hayes: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $187 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jose Trevino: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $280 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This is an MLB doubleheader (Game 2, the 7:10 PM ET nightcap) between the Cleveland Guardians and Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on July 28, 2026. The nightcap exists because Monday's series opener was rained out, forcing a split doubleheader that pushed Gavin Williams and Cincinnati's bullpen into the 7:10 PM finale. Markets on Kalshi and Polymarket cover the full-game moneyline, first-five-innings winner, run totals, spread, and an extensive suite of player props centred on Elly De La Cruz (RBIs, home runs, total bases, hits) and Gavin Williams (strikeouts). On the moneyline, Cincinnati is the narrow favourite at 54.0% on both Kalshi and Polymarket — a near coin-flip with Cleveland at 46.0–47.0%, a cross-platform spread of just 1.0 point. Pregame odds had Cleveland as a -132 favourite with Gavin Williams on the mound, but neither club is exactly rolling — Cleveland (54-53) had lost five straight entering the day, while Cincinnati (49-55) has been inconsistent in a lost NL Central season. Notably, Kyle Manzardo hit a grand slam and the Guardians rallied for a 6-5 win over Cincinnati in Game 1, potentially shifting sentiment heading into the nightcap. The run-total markets lean high-scoring: Kalshi prices over 3.5 runs at 92.0% and over 7.5 runs at 61.0%, reflecting Cincinnati's bullpen-opener approach. The Gavin Williams strikeout prop sits at 94.0% for 5+ K's, signalling strong confidence in the Cleveland starter's ability to rack up punchouts regardless of the team result. Across both platforms, moneyline pricing is tightly aligned with virtually no arbitrage gap, making this one of the more efficiently priced games on the board today.
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