Cleveland vs Miami
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland Guardians Winner | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.7M | No liquidity41.3% | — | — | — | — | ||
Chase DeLauter: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $1.7K | — | — | No liquidity2.0% | — | — | — | — |
Brayan Rocchio: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $501 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Heriberto Hernández: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $911 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Javier Sanoja: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $307 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Kahlil Watson: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Xavier Edwards: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $886 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Chase DeLauter: 3+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $2.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Brayan Rocchio: 5+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $582 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Chase DeLauter: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $4.0K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Javier Sanoja: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $215 | — | — | No liquidity69.0% | — | — | — | — |
Kyle Manzardo: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $852 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Kahlil Watson: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $4.0K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Xavier Edwards: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Brayan Rocchio: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.9K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Gabriel Arias: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $1.0K | — | — | No liquidity69.0% | — | — | — | — |
Petey Halpin: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $715 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Liam Hicks: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $4.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Patrick Bailey: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $210 | — | — | No liquidity69.0% | — | — | — | — |
Cleveland wins by over 15.5 points | 99.0%Kalshi | $29.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Kyle Manzardo: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $552 | — | — | No liquidity69.0% | — | — | — | — |
Otto Lopez: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $6.7K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Travis Bazzana: 3+ | 32.0%Kalshi | $161 | — | — | No liquidity2.0% | — | — | — | — |
Kahlil Watson: 3+ | 15.0%Kalshi | $447 | — | — | No liquidity18.0% | — | — | — | — |
Kyle Manzardo: 4+ | 14.0%Kalshi | $168 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Kyle Manzardo: 5+ | 7.0%Kalshi | $134 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Xavier Edwards: 5+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $712 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Brian Navarreto: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $739 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Travis Bazzana: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $279 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Esteury Ruiz: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $208 | — | — | No liquidity37.0% | — | — | — | — |
Otto Lopez: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $947 | — | — | No liquidity69.0% | — | — | — | — |
Travis Bazzana: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $9.2K | — | — | No liquidity69.0% | — | — | — | — |
Rece Hinds: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $909 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Miami Marlins Widest spread 0.9% | 0.1%Polymarket | $2.0M | No liquidity58.8% | — | — | — | — | ||
Leo Jiménez: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $946 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Heriberto Hernández: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $5.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Leo Jiménez: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $520 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Esteury Ruiz: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.0K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Guardians wins by over 4.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Cleveland wins by over 18.5 points | 1.0%Kalshi | $17.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Cleveland wins by over 21.5 points | 1.0%Kalshi | $295 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This market covers the MLB regular-season game between the Cleveland Guardians and Miami Marlins, originally scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 1:40 PM ET. On Polymarket and Kalshi, the market resolves to the winning team, with postponements handled by keeping the market open until the makeup game is played. Azuro additionally lists a draw outcome, which is not offered on the binary US markets. Miami is the favourite across every venue. Polymarket implies the Marlins at 55.5% versus the Guardians at 44.5%, while Kalshi has Miami at 55.0% and Cleveland at 45.0%. Azuro prices Miami slightly higher at 57.8% and Cleveland lower at 42.2%, with a 12.6% carve-out for the draw. The consensus favourite sits around 55%, roughly a 10-point edge for Miami — a modest lean rather than a decisive one. Cross-platform pricing is unusually tight: Polymarket and Kalshi agree within half a point on both sides, and Azuro's apparent gap on Cleveland (42.2% vs 44.5–45.0%) is largely explained by its draw outcome absorbing probability mass. Liquidity is heaviest on Polymarket ($25k) despite Kalshi carrying most of the traded volume so far. Overall, the platforms are aligned on Miami as a mild favourite, with no meaningful arbitrage-style spread on either side.
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