Closest Senate race in 2026? — Before Jan 3, 2027
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Iowa Favorite | 19.0%Kalshi | $48.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Texas | 13.0%Kalshi | $79.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Kansas | 11.0%Kalshi | $45.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Maine | 11.0%Kalshi | $46.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ohio | 8.2%Kalshi | $54.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nebraska | 8.1%Kalshi | $32.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Alaska | 6.5%Kalshi | $71.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Michigan | 6.3%Kalshi | $55.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
South Carolina | 6.0%Kalshi | $39.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
New Hampshire | 3.9%Kalshi | $33.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Florida | 4.0%Kalshi | $39.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Minnesota | 2.9%Kalshi | $29.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Idaho | 2.0%Kalshi | $27.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Montana | 2.0%Kalshi | $36.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Georgia | 1.7%Kalshi | $50.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
North Carolina | 1.6%Kalshi | $36.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.
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