Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista

Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista is a bantamweight bout on the UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 main card, scheduled for July 11, 2026. Prediction markets on Polymarket resolve to the fighter officially declared the winner, with draws, No Contests, or cancellations beyond July 25 resolving 50-50. Kalshi and Azuro list adjacent markets covering the winner and the round of finish. Sandhagen is the favourite on the moneyline at a consensus 57.5%, with Polymarket pricing him at 57.5% and Azuro slightly higher at 60.6%. Bautista sits at 42.5% on Polymarket and 45.7% on Azuro. That's a modest edge for Sandhagen — roughly a 15-point gap — signalling markets view him as the pick but far from a lock. Round and total-round props lean toward the fight going deep: Polymarket's "Over" lines cluster at 68.5% to 84.0%, and Azuro prices Over 1.5 rounds at 83.3% and Over 2.5 at 74.6%. Kalshi puts the chance of the fight ending before round 3 at 26.0% and before round 2 at 23.0%. Cross-platform, pricing is broadly aligned, with Azuro tilting a few points more generous to both fighters than Polymarket on the moneyline.