CPI core in July — In July 2026
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Result | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Above 0.0% Winner | Won | $8.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 0.5% | Lost | $745 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 0.1% | Lost | $25.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
0.2% | Lost | $52.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
0.1% | Lost | $30.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 0.2% | Lost | $17.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
0.3% | Lost | $34.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 0.3% | Lost | $6.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
≤0.0% | Lost | $11.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 0.7% | Lost | $1.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 0.4% | Lost | $1.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
0.4% | Lost | $8.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 0.9% | Lost | $3.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 0.8% | Lost | $2.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 1.0% | Lost | $4.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
0.6% or above | Lost | $8.1K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Dimmed prices were last confirmed too long ago for the state of this event (in play, before the game, or long-dated) and are left out of consensus, best price and spread.
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This event tracks the month-over-month change in Core CPI (Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers less food and energy) for July 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and currently scheduled for release on August 12, 2026. Kalshi lists the market as a series of "above X%" thresholds that resolve Yes if core inflation exceeds the stated cutoff, while Polymarket offers discrete buckets (0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, etc.) matching the BLS's single-decimal reporting. The overwhelming favourite is "Above 0.0%" at 99.0% on Kalshi, meaning traders view a monthly decline in core prices as nearly impossible. Probability then steps down as the threshold rises: Above 0.1% sits at 97.0%, Above 0.2% at 74.0%, and Above 0.3% at 29.0%, before falling into single digits from Above 0.5% (14.0%) onward. On Polymarket's point-estimate side, 0.2% is the modal outcome at 33.0%, closely followed by 0.3% at 29.0%, with 0.1% at 20.0% and tail outcomes (≤0.0%, 0.4%, 0.5%, 0.6%+) each priced below 7%. Kalshi and Polymarket carry the two views without meaningful disagreement, and cross-platform spreads on shared thresholds are effectively zero, pointing to a consensus expectation of a July 2026 core CPI print near 0.2%–0.3%.
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