Croatia vs England

Croatia host England in a UEFA Nations League match scheduled for October 3, 2026, listed across Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, Azuro, Limitless and Polymarket US, with total volume of about $2.82 million. The three main outcomes are an England win, a Croatia win, or a draw. Kalshi's rules settle on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. England are the clear favourite at a consensus 56.5%, ahead of the draw at 23.5% and Croatia at 19.5%. England's edge of roughly 37 points over Croatia indicates that markets broadly expect the visitors to win, though a combined 43% chance of a draw or home win shows the outcome is far from settled. Kalshi and Polymarket, the two deepest venues, align exactly on all three outcomes (56.5%, 23.5% and 19.5%). The widest divergence comes from Azuro, which prices Croatia at 22.5% against 18.5% on Polymarket US, a 3.97-point spread. Azuro also shows the draw at 26.6%, versus a 23.5–24.0% range elsewhere. Azuro's figures sit higher across all three outcomes, which suggests a larger built-in margin rather than a distinct view of the match. England's pricing is tightest, ranging only from 56.5% to 57.8%. Overall, the major platforms agree closely on England as favourite, and the notable spreads are confined mainly to Azuro's thinner market on the draw and Croatia outcomes.