ex-MANA eSports vs INFURITY Gaming
Markets
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ex-MANA eSports Winner | 99.0%Kalshi | $461.5K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
INFURITY Gaming | 0.5%Polymarket | $412.2K | — | — | — | — | — |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This market covered the Counter-Strike 2 match between ex-MANA eSports and INFURITY Gaming in United21 Group A, a best-of-three originally scheduled for July 7, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi were pricing which side would take the series, with resolution tied to official HLTV results. The two venues told sharply different stories at snapshot time. On Kalshi, where volume was thin at roughly $1,577, ex-MANA eSports was priced as the overwhelming favourite at 99.0%, with INFURITY Gaming residing at just 1.0%. Polymarket, carrying far deeper liquidity near $129,000 and cumulative volume above $381,000, showed the mirror image across its resolved contracts, with INFURITY Gaming settling as the winner at 100.0% and ex-MANA at 0.0%. The Over/Under map-total sub-markets on Polymarket also closed decisively, with Under at 99.8% and Over at 0.0%, consistent with a 2-0 sweep rather than a three-map series. The cross-platform "spread" is therefore extreme — effectively 99 points between the two books on the same question — but it reflects Kalshi's stale, low-volume quote rather than genuine disagreement, since Polymarket's settled prices indicate INFURITY Gaming actually won. The takeaway: deep-liquidity Polymarket resolved to INFURITY, while Kalshi's headline 58.0% favourite for ex-MANA is an artefact of an unresolved thin market rather than a live read on the outcome.
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