F1 Constructors' Champion

This market resolves to the winner of the 2026 F1 Constructors' Championship, with each listed team representing a Yes/No bet on whether that team claims the title at the end of the season. Despite the current favourite label of Williams at 97.0%, that figure is heavily skewed by Polymarket US and requires context: it is a consensus artifact, as Polymarket proper prices Williams at just 0.4% and Kalshi at 1.0%, making Williams a near-certain loser on the most liquid platforms. The real story is Mercedes. Mercedes lead the Constructors' Championship with 425 points and eight race wins, 87 points clear of Ferrari. With 11 rounds — including one Sprint — still to race, 489 points remain available in the Constructors' Championship. On the markets, Mercedes is priced at 87.5% on Polymarket, 91.0% on both Kalshi and Gemini, and 86.8% on Limitless — a tight cross-platform spread of just 2.75 points, signalling strong consensus. Ferrari is the only credible challenger, sitting at 11.3%–12.0% across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Gemini. Mercedes has turned the constructors' championship into a runaway, while Red Bull struggles to adapt to the 2026 rulebook — reflected in Red Bull's sub-1.0% pricing on Polymarket and Kalshi. McLaren, the reigning constructors' champion, trails badly in the standings and is priced at just 1.5% on Polymarket despite Lando Norris winning the most recent Grand Prix at Zandvoort. The Limitless and Aston Martin/Audi entries show extreme 50% placeholders rather than genuine market conviction, making those spreads statistical noise. Stripping out the Polymarket US outliers, Mercedes emerges as the clear consensus favourite at roughly 87–91% across the three most liquid platforms, with Ferrari the only team markets treat as a live threat to an 87-point championship lead.