Farid Basharat vs John Garza

Farid Basharat faces John Garza in a bantamweight bout on the early prelims of UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. Polymarket resolves the moneyline to the officially declared winner, with draws, no contests, or cancellations beyond July 25 resolving 50-50. Kalshi additionally offers a "round of finish" market that pays out if the fight ends before round 2, and Azuro lists both the moneyline and round-total props. Basharat is the clear favourite on the moneyline, priced at 84.5% on Polymarket and 87.7% on Azuro, for a consensus of 84.5%. Garza sits at 15.5% on Polymarket and 18.7% on Azuro (consensus 15.5%). That gap points to a lopsided matchup in the eyes of the market, though the roughly three-point spread on Basharat between the two venues is the widest cross-platform discrepancy on the card. On the props, Kalshi implies a 27.0% chance the fight ends before round 2 and 40.0% before round 3. Azuro's round totals lean toward a longer fight, with Over 1.5 rounds at 72.5% and Over/Under 2.5 near a coin flip (54.6% vs 53.2%). The takeaway: platforms broadly agree Basharat is a heavy favourite, with Azuro pricing him slightly higher than Polymarket.