Fearnley vs Kozlov

This market covered the ATP Challenger Newport Round of 16 tennis match between Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov, originally scheduled for July 9, 2026. On Polymarket, the market resolved to whichever player advanced, with special rules for cancellations, walkovers, or retirements. On Kalshi, the market tracked whether Fearnley would win after a ball had been played. Both platforms listed the event, with Kalshi drawing the bulk of the volume at roughly $3.38M compared with Polymarket's $594K. Pricing across venues converged almost entirely on Fearnley. Polymarket implied a 99.8% probability of a Fearnley win, while Kalshi had him at 99.0%, a cross-platform spread of just 0.80 points. Kozlov sat at 1.0% on Kalshi and 0.1% on Polymarket, a 0.90-point gap. Polymarket's binary Yes/No framing showed Yes at 100.0% and No at 0.1%. Fearnley was the overwhelming favourite by nearly 99 points, signalling the market treated a Kozlov upset as a remote tail scenario. The cross-platform takeaway: Polymarket and Kalshi agreed closely on the outcome, with only marginal differences in how confidently each priced the near-certain Fearnley win.