Fed Decision in December?

This market tracks what the Federal Open Market Committee will decide at its December 8–9, 2026 meeting, resolving based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate versus its pre-meeting level. Traders can back a 25 bps hike, no change, a 25 bps cut, or the tail outcomes of a 50+ bps move in either direction, with the FOMC's post-meeting statement serving as the resolution source. A 25 bps increase is the clear favourite at a 70.5% consensus, well ahead of "no change" at 30.5%. The remaining scenarios are priced as tails: a 50+ bps cut sits at 2.5%, a 50+ bps hike at 2.0%, and a 25 bps cut at just 1.5%. The lopsided pricing signals traders overwhelmingly expect the Fed to tighten modestly rather than hold or ease. Cross-platform spreads are modest but consistent. Polymarket US prices the 25 bps hike at 71.0% versus 67.5% on Polymarket, a 3-point gap mirrored inversely on "no change" (31.0% vs 27.5%). The 50+ bps decrease shows the widest relative divergence, at 3.0% on Polymarket US against 0.5% on Polymarket. Overall, both venues agree directionally, with Polymarket US pricing tail and hike outcomes slightly richer than Polymarket.