Fed Decision in October?

This market asks whether the Federal Reserve will change interest rates at its October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting, with "no change" meaning the fed funds target range stays at the post-September level of 3.75%–4.00%, versus hikes or cuts of varying size. Across platforms, "no change" (or "Fed maintains rate") is the clear favourite, with Polymarket US and Polymarket both pricing it near 83.5–84.5% and Gemini close behind at 83.0%. A 25 bps increase sits well behind as the main alternative, priced around 15–17% across Polymarket, Polymarket US, and Gemini, while deeper cuts or larger hikes are priced under 2% everywhere, reflecting near-consensus that the Fed will pause after its recent move. This is a notable reversal from a few weeks earlier: following the September FOMC meeting and updated projections, market prices for a 25 basis point increase in October surged from 38% to 56%, while the no change option dropped from 63% to 44%, reflecting growing consensus on a moderate rate hike at the October meeting. Since then sentiment has swung back toward a hold — two weeks ago traders already leaned toward a hike, but now a hold on Oct. 28 is the favorite, and December looks likelier still. Some analysts still expect further tightening eventually, as if the Fed does not raise rates in October, markets see a hike on December, underscoring that a pause now doesn't rule out action later. Cross-platform spreads remain tight — roughly 1 point between venues on both the "no change" and "25 bps increase" outcomes — indicating strong agreement that the Fed will hold steady in October after its September hike, even as traders continue to price meaningful odds of a subsequent increase before year-end.