Fed Decision in September?

This market asks what the Federal Reserve will do with the federal funds rate at its September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting — specifically, whether it will hike, hold, or cut by a given number of basis points. A 25 bps hike would move the target range from its current 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. Resolution follows the official FOMC statement. A 25 bps hike is the overwhelming favourite across all platforms. On Polymarket — which dominates with nearly $184 million in volume — a hike is priced at 87.5%, with a negligible 1.0-point spread versus Polymarket US at 87.0%. Gemini's "Hike 25bps" outcome sits at 88.0%, essentially in lockstep. No-change contracts price at just 11.5%–13.0% across platforms, and all cut or larger-hike scenarios are priced at or below 1.3%. The current market-implied probability of a 25 bp hike from Fed funds futures stands at 91%, slightly above but broadly consistent with prediction market pricing. The hawkish lean reflects a clear macro backdrop. The Committee has held the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% since December 2025. Two drivers lowered the bar for a September hike: continued supply-chain shocks tied to the ongoing Iran conflict that are keeping energy costs elevated, and increased investor doubt about the Fed's willingness to keep inflation contained after it left rates unchanged in July. At the July meeting, three policymakers dissented in favor of a hike — the most seen since September 2016 — with dissents coming from regional presidents Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis, and Lorie Logan of Dallas. The Fed is widely expected to raise the target range by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, as inflation remains well above target, US headline inflation held at 3.4% year-on-year in August, and diesel prices have risen to $6 a gallon. Across Polymarket and Gemini, the 25 bps hike consensus is tight, with a cross-platform spread of just 1.0 to 2.0 points, signalling that all major venues see this outcome as a near-certainty with very little arbitrage opportunity remaining.