Fed rate hike in 2026?

This market asks whether the Federal Reserve will raise the upper bound of its target federal funds rate at any point between January 1, 2026 and its December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8–9, 2026. A "Yes" resolution requires at least one rate hike during that window, while "No" resolves only after the Fed's December decision confirms no increase was made. The event has drawn roughly $7.69 million in volume on Polymarket, with a parallel Polymarket US listing showing no activity. Pricing is essentially a coin flip. The consensus implied probability for Yes sits at 51.5%, versus 50.5% for No, making a hike a marginal favourite. On Polymarket, Yes and No are quoted at 50.0% apiece, while Polymarket US prices Yes slightly higher at 52.0% and No at 49.0%. The cross-platform spread is modest at about 2 percentage points on each outcome, with Polymarket offering the cheapest Yes entry at 50.0% and Polymarket US the cheapest No at 49.0%. Overall, traders across both venues are treating a 2026 Fed rate hike as roughly a toss-up, with only a slim tilt toward the hike scenario.