FedEx St. Jude Championship Winner — 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship

The 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship — the opening event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs — is underway at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, running August 13–16. Markets on Polymarket and Kalshi resolve on whichever listed player lifts the trophy; an unlisted winner resolves to "Other." With over $62.9 million in total volume, Kalshi dominates activity by a wide margin, logging $62.9 million in volume against Polymarket's $65,623, reflecting the deep institutional liquidity Kalshi has built in golf markets. Scottie Scheffler is the pre-tournament favourite at a consensus 12.5% (Kalshi 13.0%, Polymarket 12.5%), but his lead over the field is narrow. Scheffler shot a 2-under 68 in his first round, leaving him off the early pace. The second-highest implied probability belongs to Steven Fisk at 9.8% on Polymarket — a notable outlier, as Kalshi carries no Fisk contract, creating the most significant single-player platform gap in the market. Tommy Fleetwood sits third at 9.3% consensus (Polymarket 9.3%, Kalshi 8.9%), bolstered by a strong opening round: Fleetwood made two birdies and an eagle in his first four holes to jump out to an early lead. Fleetwood, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama, Gary Woodland, Chris Gotterup, Bud Cauley, and Adam Scott were among a group of 12 players tied or within one stroke of the lead after 18 holes. Matsuyama carries the widest notable cross-platform spread at 1.65 points (Kalshi 7.0%, Polymarket 8.4%). Michael Thorbjornsen, a winner two weeks prior at the Rocket Classic, posted a 5-under 65 to tie Jordan Spieth for the early lead. With Scheffler holding only a modest edge over a tightly bunched field, both platforms broadly agree this tournament remains very much open.