FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner — On Dec 31, 2026

This market resolves on the winner of the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship, with each outcome representing a specific player claiming the title. It is listed on both Kalshi, which has drawn essentially all of the roughly $1.88M in volume, and Polymarket US, where trading activity is currently absent. Javokhir Sindarov is the clear favourite, priced at 70.0% on Kalshi and 72.0% on Polymarket US for a consensus of 70.0%. Gukesh Dommaraju sits in a distant second, but with the widest disagreement on the board: Polymarket US has him at 51.0% while Kalshi prices him at just 30.0%, a 21-point gap that is difficult to reconcile with the two platforms' near-alignment on Sindarov. Notably, the Kalshi prices for Sindarov and Gukesh together already exceed 100%, suggesting the field is not fully normalised there. The remaining contenders — Praggnanandhaa, Caruana, Esipenko, Wei Yi, Giri, Bluebaum, and Nakamura — all cluster near a 2.5% consensus, each showing Polymarket US quotes of 3.0%–4.0% against Kalshi quotes of 1.0%–2.0%. The cross-platform takeaway: both venues agree Sindarov is the heavy favourite, but they disagree sharply on how much of the remaining probability belongs to Gukesh versus the rest of the field.