Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent — On Aug 18, 2026

This market tracks James Fishback's vote share in the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary on August 18, 2026. The outcomes are structured as tiered brackets, asking whether Fishback will cross thresholds of 1%, 3%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, and 30% of the primary vote. Both Polymarket and Kalshi list the event, with Kalshi dominating volume at $1.57 million versus Polymarket's $35,000; no cross-platform spread exists on any shared outcome. The lowest brackets are priced near certainty — "at least 1%" and "at least 3%" both sit at 98.3–98.4% on Kalshi — reflecting Fishback's confirmed ballot status and credible polling base. Fishback has demonstrated consistent upward momentum in polling, moving from roughly 1% in late 2025 to 3–5% in early 2026, and most recently capturing 8% in an early June AIF poll and 9% with Change Research in May. The critical battleground is the 10% threshold at 82.0%, while clearing 15% is a coin flip at 44.0%, and 20% or more is priced at just 15.0%. A Cygnal poll conducted July 12–13 among 500 likely Florida Republican primary voters shows Donalds leading with 43%, followed by Fishback at 12% and Jay Collins at 11%. The financial disparity is stark: Donalds holds $65.8 million in cash-on-hand compared to Fishback's $112,000, capping his upside. Fishback's base is heavily skewed toward Gen-Z males — a demographic prone to underperformance in closed, late-summer primaries. On Polymarket, the single most likely bracket is "10–15%" at 30.0%, followed by "15–20%" at 17.5%, painting a picture of a candidate most likely to land in low double digits. With no cross-platform spread on any outcome, both Polymarket and Kalshi are broadly aligned: Fishback almost certainly clears 5%, probably clears 10%, and has roughly even odds of reaching 15%.