France vs Morocco
Markets
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
France Winner | 62.1%Azuro | $30.5M | — | — | — | ||||
Draw Eliminated | 0.2%Limitless | $8.7M | — | — | Eliminated$4.5M | — | |||
Morocco Eliminated | 0.3%Limitless | $14.4M | — | — | Eliminated$9.2M | — | |||
Dayot Upamecano | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Manu Kone | 1.0%Kalshi | $6.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Lucas Digne | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
William Saliba | 1.0%Kalshi | $6.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jules Kounde | 3.0%Kalshi | $757 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Issa Diop | 2.0%Kalshi | $5.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Neil El Aynaoui | 3.0%Kalshi | $1.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Anass Salah-Eddine | 2.0%Kalshi | $274 | — | — | No liquidity5.0% | — | — | — | — |
Noussair Mazraoui | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ayyoub Bouaddi | 2.0%Kalshi | $3.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Warren Zaire-Emery: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $2.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Adrien Rabiot | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Adrien Rabiot: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $29.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Manu Kone: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $23.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Lucas Digne: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $15.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Dayot Upamecano: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $45.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
William Saliba: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $44.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $7.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ousmane Dembele | 1.0%Kalshi | $100.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Michael Olise | 1.0%Kalshi | $74.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Desire Doue | 1.0%Kalshi | $16.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Azzedine Ounahi | 1.0%Kalshi | $22.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Chemsdine Talbi | 1.0%Kalshi | $16.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $133.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Chemsdine Talbi: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $114.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Anass Salah-Eddine: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $34.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Issa Diop: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $62.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Noussair Mazraoui: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $26.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $45.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Chemsdine Talbi: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $31.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Brahim Diaz | 1.0%Kalshi | $15.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Achraf Hakimi | 1.0%Kalshi | $61.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Bilal El Khannouss | 1.0%Kalshi | $5.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Goal Diff Reg Time: France wins by more than 3.5 goals | 1.0%Kalshi | $159.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $27.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sofyan Amrabat: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
France over 4.5 goals | 1.0%Kalshi | $9.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Zakaria El-Ouadi: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $267 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $31.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Bradley Barcola: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $21.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Gessime Yassine: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Malo Gusto: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $119 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This is a World Cup 2026 quarterfinal. France is the favourite at 62%, Morocco around 15%, draw around 25%. Let me write the description. France head into a FIFA World Cup 2026 quarterfinal against Morocco on July 9, with prediction markets treating Les Bleus as clear but not overwhelming favourites. The headline moneyline market on Kalshi asks whether France advance past Morocco to the semifinals, and the price sits at 62.0% for France. Polymarket, Kalshi, Azuro and Limitless all converge tightly on the regulation-time outcomes: France to win at 61.0–62.0%, a draw at 25.0–25.6%, and Morocco at 14.0–15.0%, with cross-platform spreads under a point on the main lines. This is a rematch of the Qatar 2022 semifinal, in which France beat Morocco 2-0 — a result that made Morocco the first African team to reach that stage and sent France to the final. France arrive here having won all five of their tournament matches, scoring 14 and conceding only two, while Morocco are unbeaten across five games, which helps explain why goal-scoring markets skew low: Kalshi's over 2.5 goals sits at 48.0% and Azuro's under 2.5 goals prices in at 53.5%. A notable pre-match development is that Morocco striker Ismael Saibari, who scored in each group game and converted the decisive penalty against the Netherlands, has been ruled out with a hamstring injury sustained in the previous round, which likely reinforces France's edge. Kylian Mbappé enters with seven goals in five games, and Kalshi prices him at 55.0% to score. Across all four venues, the market read is consistent: France a moderate favourite, Morocco a live underdog, and a tight, low-scoring contest the base case.
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