France vs Spain
Markets
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spain Winner | 30.8%Azuro | $18.3M | — | No liquidity99.8% | — | — | |||
Mikel Oyarzabal | 99.0%Kalshi | $84.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Pedro Porro | 1.0%Kalshi | $20.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Pedro Porro: 1+ | 4.0%Kalshi | $64.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
France | 0.1%Polymarket | $51.1M | — | — | — | ||||
Draw | 0.1%Limitless | $13.4M | — | — | — | ||||
Manu Kone: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $4.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Mikel Merino: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $189.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Aymeric Laporte | 1.0%Kalshi | $6.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Pau Cubarsi | 1.0%Kalshi | $11.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Pedro Porro: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $450 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ousmane Dembele | 1.0%Kalshi | $225.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Michael Olise | 1.0%Kalshi | $136.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ferran Torres | 1.0%Kalshi | $7.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Bradley Barcola | 1.0%Kalshi | $38.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Mikel Merino | 1.0%Kalshi | $13.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ferran Torres: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $111.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Bradley Barcola: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $143.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ferran Torres: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Bradley Barcola: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $18.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Mikel Merino: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $10.1K | — | — | No liquidity17.0% | — | — | — | — |
Alex Baena | 1.0%Kalshi | $19.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Fabian Ruiz | 1.0%Kalshi | $17.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Alex Baena: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $62.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Fabian Ruiz: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $79.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Aymeric Laporte: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $30.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Pau Cubarsi: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $30.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Alex Baena: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $11.2K | — | — | No liquidity39.0% | — | — | — | — |
Adrien Rabiot | 1.0%Kalshi | $18.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Lucas Digne | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Dayot Upamecano | 1.0%Kalshi | $8.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
William Saliba | 1.0%Kalshi | $10.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Adrien Rabiot: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $32.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Dayot Upamecano: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $60.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Lucas Digne: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $12.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
William Saliba: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $79.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jules Kounde | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 1.0%Kalshi | $17.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Dani Olmo | 1.0%Kalshi | $20.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Rodri | 1.0%Kalshi | $5.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Marc Cucurella | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Maxence Lacroix: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Goal Diff Reg Time: Spain wins by more than 3.5 goals | 1.0%Kalshi | $406.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Theo Hernandez: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Rayan Cherki: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nico Williams: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $7.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This is the FIFA World Cup 2026 semifinal between France and Spain, scheduled for July 14 in Dallas, with the winner advancing to the final. Across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless, the primary match-winner market — covering which team advances past the semifinal — shows France as the narrow favourite at 42.5% on Polymarket and 41.0% on Kalshi, while Spain sits at 30.0% on both Kalshi and Polymarket (with Limitless pricing Spain fractionally lower at 29.6%). A draw at 90 minutes is priced around 29.5%–30.0%, meaning extra time and penalties remain a live possibility that the market is meaningfully pricing in. The cross-platform spread on the France outcome is a modest 1.5 percentage points — the widest gap in the dataset — suggesting Polymarket traders are slightly more bullish on Les Bleus than Kalshi's user base. France arrive on the back of a 2-0 quarterfinal win over Morocco, generating a dominant 3.68 xG against just 0.14 for the Atlas Lions. Spain, meanwhile, edged Portugal 1-0 on a stoppage-time goal from Mikel Merino, then did virtually the same to Belgium in a 2-1 win settled in the 88th minute. A June 2025 Nations League meeting went Spain's way 5-4, while <cite index="6-3">Spain also beat France 2-1 in the Euro 2024 semifinal, giving La Roja recent psychological edge despite France's tournament momentum.</cite> On the props side, Kalshi prices Kylian Mbappé as the most likely first goalscorer at 60.0%, and the total goals market on Kalshi sits right at the 51.0% mark for over 2.5, signalling expectations of an open, attacking contest. Overall, all three platforms are broadly aligned: France lead by a slim margin in a genuinely three-way contest, and the near-zero cross-platform spread on most outcomes suggests consistent consensus pricing heading into one of the tournament's marquee fixtures.
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