Frusina vs Zhu

This closed market covered the men's singles Round of 16 match between Alexander Frusina and Evan Zhu at the ITF/M25 Dallas event, originally scheduled for July 9, 2026. On the head-to-head market, "Evan Zhu" resolves for backers if Zhu advances, while "Alexander Frusina" pays out if Frusina wins; per Kalshi and Polymarket rules, walkovers and matches that never see a ball played resolve 50-50, and in-match retirements go to the player who advances. Pricing across platforms pointed overwhelmingly to Zhu. Polymarket had him at 100.0% and Kalshi at 99.0%, implying Frusina at 0.0% and 1.0% respectively. Azuro's moneyline on the same two-way outcome looked like an outlier, showing Frusina at 57.5% and Zhu at 48.5%, but that market carried $0 volume and $0 liquidity, so it is not a meaningful signal. Volume was concentrated on Kalshi at roughly $124,417, with Polymarket adding about $1,465. Zhu is the clear favourite by an enormous margin — effectively priced as a near-certainty on the two liquid venues. The only notable cross-platform gap sits on illiquid Azuro quotes, so the practical takeaway is that Kalshi and Polymarket agree tightly on Zhu near 99–100%, with no meaningful disagreement between the venues that actually traded.