Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison

Gable Steveson faces Elisha Ellison on the UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 prelims card, scheduled for July 11, 2026 at heavyweight. Markets on Polymarket, Kalshi and Azuro cover the moneyline as well as several round-of-finish and over/under prop lines, with Polymarket carrying the bulk of activity at roughly $141k in volume versus small books on Kalshi and Azuro. Steveson is a heavy favourite to win. Azuro implies a 94.3% chance for the former Olympic wrestler, while Polymarket has him slightly cheaper at 90.1%, giving a cross-platform spread of about 4.2 points on the moneyline. Ellison sits at 12.6% on Azuro and 10.0% on Polymarket. The finish props reinforce the one-sided read: Kalshi prices the fight ending before round 3 at 85.0% and before round 2 at 74.0%, and Azuro's under 1.5 rounds is 84.8% versus over 1.5 at 25.3%. The round total sits closest to a coin flip at the 2.5 line, where Polymarket shows over at 51.0% and under at 49.0%. Across the three books, the takeaway is consistent: Steveson is a strong favourite expected to finish early, with Polymarket offering a modestly cheaper entry on him than Azuro.