Gaston vs Moeller

This market covers the ATP Challenger Braunschweig quarterfinal between Hugo Gaston and Marvin Moeller, originally scheduled for 10 July 2026. On Polymarket and Kalshi, the headline contract resolves to the player who advances; Kalshi's version specifies resolution once a ball has been played, with rescheduling allowed within two weeks. Azuro additionally lists a broad set of side markets covering handicaps, totals and odd/even game counts. The main line is effectively settled. Hugo Gaston is the overwhelming favourite at a consensus 99.9%, priced at 99.9% on Polymarket and 99.0% on Kalshi, while Marvin Moeller sits at roughly 0.1% on Polymarket and 1.0% on Kalshi. Total volume across platforms is about $1.52 million, concentrated on Kalshi ($1.52M) and Polymarket ($213K), with Azuro's activity negligible at $7. The one notable dislocation is Azuro, which still shows Gaston at 72.5% and Moeller at 34.8% on the moneyline — figures that look like stale or thinly traded quotes rather than a genuine disagreement, given the near-zero volume there. Across the two liquid venues, Polymarket and Kalshi agree within about one percentage point that Gaston has essentially already advanced.