Genesis Scottish Open Winner — 2026 Genesis Scottish Open

The 2026 Genesis Scottish Open is a 72-hole PGA Tour/DP World Tour co-sanctioned event played at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland, serving as the traditional links tune-up ahead of The Open Championship. Markets on Kalshi and Polymarket resolve to the individual player who lifts the trophy, with "Other" available on Polymarket for unlisted winners. With the tournament entering the weekend after 36 holes, Rory McIlroy, Tom Kim, and Jordan Smith share the lead at 9-under par, while Matt Fitzpatrick and Min Woo Lee sit one shot back. That leaderboard context makes the markets fascinating: Fitzpatrick posted a 65 featuring five successive back-nine birdies and is the consensus favourite at 19.0% on Kalshi and 16.4% on Polymarket — a 2.6-point spread that represents one of the wider divergences in the field. McIlroy sits at 18.0% on Kalshi but a notably higher 25.5% on Polymarket, creating a 7.5-point gap — the largest cross-platform spread in the market — plausibly reflecting Polymarket traders placing extra weight on his position at the top of the board. McIlroy has held the co-lead through both rounds and has never finished outside the top five in three prior trips to the Renaissance Club. Chris Gotterup (consensus 18.0%) adds intrigue as the defending champion: he sits just two back heading into the weekend and is coming off a victory the prior week at the John Deere Classic. A notable storyline removing one major name: Scottie Scheffler struggled from the start and missed the 36-hole cut, ending a streak of 78 consecutive cuts made. Overall, Polymarket prices McIlroy more aggressively than Kalshi does, while Kalshi's deeper liquidity ($56.7M) sets the more conservative tone across this tightly bunched three-way race at the top.