GPT-6 released by…?

This market, listed on Polymarket and Gemini, asks whether OpenAI will publicly release a model named GPT-6 (or a clear successor to GPT-5, such as a hypothetical ChatGPT-6o) by December 31, 2025. To resolve "Yes," the model must be broadly accessible to the general public, including via open beta or an open waitlist — closed betas do not count, and half-step labels like GPT-5.5 are excluded. Resolution leans on OpenAI's own announcements plus credible reporting. The headline outcome is decisively skewed toward "No": both Polymarket and Gemini price the top-line No at 99.0%, essentially treating a GPT-6 release inside the window as a tail event. Polymarket has accumulated roughly $1.55M in volume against Gemini's $32K, so Polymarket is doing most of the price discovery here. Deeper in the outcome ladder — likely reflecting sub-questions about specific release windows or successor branding — probabilities span from the mid-60s down to low single digits, with the widest cross-platform gaps around 6 points on a mid-tier No (Gemini 51.0% vs Polymarket 56.0%) and a mid-tier Yes (Gemini 50.0% vs Polymarket 43.5%). Across both venues, traders overwhelmingly expect no GPT-6 launch by year-end 2025, with only modest disagreement on the intermediate scenarios.