Greece vs. Germany

Greece host Germany in a UEFA Nations League match scheduled for October 4, 2026. The event is listed on Polymarket, Kalshi, Novig, Limitless, Azuro and Polymarket US, with roughly $1.0 million in total volume, most of it on Polymarket and Kalshi. There are three outcomes: a Germany win, a Greece win, or a draw. Kalshi's rules settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time, so extra time and penalties are excluded. Polymarket US lists separate regulation-time contracts for each team and the tie. Germany are clear favourites at a 53.6% consensus. Novig prices them at 53.8%, and Kalshi, Limitless and Polymarket all sit at 53.5%. The draw averages 24.5% and Greece 22.1%. That makes Germany more than twice as likely as Greece to win, which suggests the market sees the visitors as stronger despite playing away. Polymarket US's regulation-time contracts match the consensus closely: 53.5% for Germany, 24.5% for the tie and 22.5% for Greece. The main outlier is Azuro. It has Greece at 27.0%, compared with 21.5% on Kalshi, the widest spread on the board at 5.45 points. Azuro also prices the draw at 26.3% and Germany at 55.6%, so its three outcomes add up to more than the other venues' and likely carry a larger built-in margin. Azuro's volume is also thin at about $1,338. Overall, the major venues agree almost exactly on this match, and the only notable divergence comes from Azuro's low-volume market, mainly on Greece.