Green vs Ribovics

This market covers the UFC 332 lightweight main-card bout between King Green and Esteban Ribovics, part of the Silva vs Wang card scheduled for October 3, 2026. Each outcome pays if that fighter is officially declared the winner. On Polymarket and Limitless, a draw, no contest, cancellation or postponement beyond October 17 resolves 50-50. Kalshi resolves ties or no contests 50/50 and handles cancellations at a fair price. Azuro lists the fighter as "Bobby Green," but that listing has no liquidity and is excluded from the consensus. Total volume stands at about $1.34 million, led by Kalshi ($760,479), Novig ($152,703) and Polymarket ($98,614). Esteban Ribovics is the clear favourite at a 64.0% consensus versus 36.5% for Green, a gap of roughly 27.5 points. That suggests markets see Ribovics as the more likely winner without treating the result as settled. Venue midpoints for Ribovics range from 63.5% on Polymarket, Polymarket US and Limitless to 64.5% on Kalshi, with Novig at 64.3% and Gemini at 64.0%. Green ranges from 35.8% on Novig to 36.5% on Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and Limitless. The cross-platform spreads are narrow, at 1.00 points for Ribovics and 0.75 points for Green. Pricing across Polymarket, Kalshi, Novig, Gemini, Limitless and Polymarket US is tightly aligned, with no venue materially out of line.