Home Run Derby Winner — 2026

The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby, scheduled to take place during the mid-July All-Star window, has drawn a combined pool of over $42 million across Kalshi and Polymarket. Each listed contract resolves to the player who wins the derby, with Polymarket also offering an "Other" bucket and rules for cancellation or postponement past July 27. Kalshi's individual player markets apply dead-heat rules in the event of a tie. Jordan Walker is the overwhelming favourite, with a consensus implied probability of 99.0%. Kalshi prices him at 99.0% and Polymarket at 100.0%, a spread of less than one point. Every other named contender — Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras, Munetaka Murakami, Ben Rice, Junior Caminero, Bryce Harper, and Jac Caglianone — sits at roughly 1.0% on Kalshi, with Polymarket generally pricing them at or near 0%. The one notable cross-platform gap is Schwarber, quoted at 1.0% on Kalshi versus 0.1% on Polymarket, a spread of about 0.95 points. With volume heavily concentrated on Kalshi ($42.3M versus $1.7M on Polymarket), the two venues agree almost completely: Walker is treated as a near-certain winner, and the field is priced as a collection of longshots.