Houston vs Washington
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Houston Astros Winner | 99.0%Kalshi | $2.6M | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Curtis Mead: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $395 | — | — | No liquidity9.0% | — | — | — | — |
Nasim Nuñez: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $758 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Jose Altuve: 4+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $784 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nasim Nuñez: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $520 | — | — | No liquidity69.0% | — | — | — | — |
Jose Altuve: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $3.4K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Curtis Mead: 1+ | 6.0%Kalshi | $14.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nick Allen: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $930 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Jorbit Vivas: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $673 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Christian Vázquez: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $211 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Isaac Paredes: 3+ | 36.0%Kalshi | $266 | — | — | No liquidity94.0% | — | — | — | — |
Daylen Lile: 3+ | 35.0%Kalshi | $144 | — | — | No liquidity21.0% | — | — | — | — |
Jacob Young: 3+ | 26.0%Kalshi | $583 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Isaac Paredes: 2+ | 25.0%Kalshi | $232 | — | — | No liquidity52.0% | — | — | — | — |
Nasim Nuñez: 3+ | 23.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Curtis Mead: 5+ | 6.0%Kalshi | $125 | — | — | No liquidity98.0% | — | — | — | — |
Curtis Mead: 3+ | 5.0%Kalshi | $245 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Keibert Ruiz: 5+ | 5.0%Kalshi | $158 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Brice Matthews: 5+ | 4.0%Kalshi | $107 | — | — | No liquidity98.0% | — | — | — | — |
Jacob Young: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $3.0K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Keibert Ruiz: 3+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Cam Smith: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $7.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Zach Dezenzo: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $3.8K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Washington Nationals Widest spread 0.9% | 0.1%Polymarket | $2.1M | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Jose Altuve: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.3K | — | — | No liquidity2.0% | — | — | — | — |
Keibert Ruiz: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.9K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Zach Dezenzo: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $217 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Daylen Lile: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $7.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Brice Matthews: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $5.0K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Keibert Ruiz: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.2K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Isaac Paredes: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $7.0K | — | — | No liquidity69.0% | — | — | — | — |
Astros wins by over 4.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $5.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This is a moneyline market for the Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals MLB game on July 7, 2026 at Nationals Park. The market resolves to whichever team wins. Let me draft the description. The Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals matchup is a July 7, 2026 MLB interleague game at Nationals Park, with the headline moneyline market resolving to whichever team wins. Polymarket currently prices Houston as the favourite at 63.9%, implying a 36.1% chance for Washington. Kalshi's version of the same market tells a very different story, listing Houston at just 47.0% and Washington at 55.0% — a cross-platform spread of roughly 17 points on the Astros line and 20 points on the Nationals line, which is unusually wide for a single-game MLB market. Total-runs derivatives on Kalshi lean heavily toward scoring, with Over 7.5 runs at 75.0% and Over 9.5 at 54.0%, consistent with a projected total near 9. The Kalshi read aligns more closely with the sportsbook consensus. ESPN lists Tatsuya Imai (5-4, 6.14 ERA) starting for Houston against Washington's Andrew Alvarez (2-1, 3.05), with the Nationals as home favourites and ESPN Analytics giving Washington a 66.6% win probability. The Astros come in at 45-48 after losing the series opener 12-11 on Monday, blowing a 6-1 third-inning lead before falling short in a comeback, and Alvarez has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight outings, which helps explain Washington's edge with the books. The takeaway: Kalshi and the sportsbooks agree Washington is the narrow favourite, while Polymarket's Astros line looks like a clear outlier at this snapshot.
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