How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Before 2027
Markets
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Above 4.5% Favorite | 14.0%Kalshi | $34.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 4.8% | 9.0%Kalshi | $5.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 5% Widest spread 6.0% | 7.9%Kalshi | $344.1K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Above 5.5% | 5.0%Kalshi | $7.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 6% | 4.0%Kalshi | $220.9K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Above 6.5% | 3.0%Kalshi | $8.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 7% | 3.3%Kalshi | $119.0K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Above 8% | 3.5%Kalshi | $21.1K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Above 9% | 3.7%Kalshi | $18.3K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Above 10% | 1.0%Gemini | $13.1K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Above 12% | 4.9%Kalshi | $3.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 15% | 3.1%Kalshi | $3.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 17% | 8.9%Kalshi | $4.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above 20% | 8.8%Kalshi | $3.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This market asks how high the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3, as reported by the BLS in its monthly Employment Situation Report) will climb during any reference month in 2026. It is listed across Polymarket, Kalshi and Gemini, with tiered "Above X%" thresholds on Kalshi and Gemini and paired Yes/No contracts on Polymarket. Resolution hinges on whether any 2026 monthly U-3 print meets or exceeds each threshold, with final resolution tied to the December 2026 report. The pricing implies a low-unemployment base case. On Polymarket, "No" outcomes at the lower thresholds trade at 90.4%–95.4%, while the corresponding "Yes" legs sit between 4.7% and 9.6%. On Kalshi, the highest-priced tier is "Above 4.5%" at 29.0%, which is the current favourite among the threshold ladder. Probabilities fall steeply higher up the curve: "Above 4.8%" at 11.0%, "Above 5%" near 6.5–7.0%, "Above 6%" around 3.7–4.0%, and tail thresholds of 10% and above clustered near 3–4%. Cross-platform spreads are mostly negligible, though Gemini prices several higher thresholds (Above 7%, Above 9%) about 0.4–0.55 points richer than Kalshi. Overall, traders are pricing a modest uptick in unemployment as plausible but a significant spike as unlikely.
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