How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026?
Markets
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| Outcome | Result | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5.09% or below Winner | Won | $2.1K | — | — | No liquidity89.0% | — | — | — | — |
5.1% or below Winner | Won | $2.2K | — | — | No liquidity92.0% | — | — | — | — |
5.11% or below Winner | Won | $1.9K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
5.12% or below Winner | Won | $2.5K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
5.13% or below Winner | Won | $3.6K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
5.14% or below Winner | Won | $3.5K | — | — | No liquidity98.0% | — | — | — | — |
5.15% or below Winner | Won | $1.1K | — | — | No liquidity92.0% | — | — | — | — |
5.16% or below Winner | Won | $416 | — | — | No liquidity91.0% | — | — | — | — |
5.17% or below Winner | Won | $605 | — | — | No liquidity91.0% | — | — | — | — |
5.18% or below Winner | Won | $626 | — | — | No liquidity98.0% | — | — | — | — |
5.19% or below Winner | Won | $2.0K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
5.2% or below Winner | Won | $1.9K | — | — | No liquidity98.0% | — | — | — | — |
5.21% or below Winner | Won | $582 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
5.22% or below Winner | Won | $215 | — | — | No liquidity98.0% | — | — | — | — |
5.03% or below No liquidity | Lost | $603 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
5.04% or below No liquidity | Lost | $3.3K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
5.05% or below No liquidity | Lost | $5.5K | — | — | No liquidity13.0% | — | — | — | — |
5.06% or below No liquidity | Lost | $5.1K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
5.07% or below No liquidity | Lost | $1.5K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
5.08% or below No liquidity | Lost | $4.1K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.
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