How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?
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| Outcome | Result | Volume | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4.65% or below | — | $1.2K | — | — | — | — | — | |
4.66% or below | — | $4.5K | — | — | — | — | — | |
4.67% or below | — | $2.4K | — | — | — | — | — | |
4.69% or below | — | $3.3K | — | — | — | — | — | |
4.7% or below | — | $500 | — | — | — | — | — | |
4.71% or below | — | $980 | — | — | — | — | — | |
4.72% or below | — | $3.2K | — | — | — | — | — | |
4.73% or below | — | $2.7K | — | — | — | — | — | |
4.74% or below | — | $1.5K | — | — | — | — | — | |
4.75% or below | — | $3.8K | — | — | — | — | — | |
4.76% or below | — | $990 | — | — | — | — | — | |
4.77% or below | — | $180 | — | — | — | — | — | |
4.78% or below | — | $1.3K | — | — | — | — | — | |
4.79% or below | — | $1.1K | — | — | — | — | — | |
4.68% or below No liquidity | — | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Dimmed prices were last confirmed too long ago for the state of this event (in play, before the game, or long-dated) and are left out of consensus, best price and spread.
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
How this is resolved This market covers the period between Sep 9, 2026 and Sep 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.
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