How many Senate Republicans will vote to convict Trump? — Before Jan 20, 2029
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Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 1 Favorite | 59.0%Kalshi | $980 | — | — | — | — | — | |
At least 2 | 41.0%Kalshi | $2.0K | — | — | — | — | — | |
At least 3 | 41.0%Kalshi | $498 | — | — | — | — | — | |
At least 5 | 37.0%Kalshi | $1.5K | — | — | — | — | — | |
At least 8 | 30.0%Kalshi | $2.6K | — | — | — | — | — | |
At least 12 | 26.0%Kalshi | $751 | — | — | — | — | — | |
At least 15 | 19.0%Kalshi | $1.3K | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
The first Senate roll-call vote after Issuance on whether Donald Trump is guilty or not guilty on an article of impeachment counts, whichever article is voted on first, and only Republican Senators voting guilty on that vote count. If no such vote occurs before Jan 20, 2029, the number is 0. A Senator is a Republican if the Senate lists them as a Republican on the day of the vote. Independent Senators do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans. The following do NOT count: The Senate votes of Feb 5, 2020 and Feb 13, 2021 A vote on a motion to dismiss, a point of order, or any other procedural question A vote on any later article, or in any later impeachment trial of Donald Trump
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